It All Connects at NADA '24
According to Cox Automotive estimates based on vehicle registration data, total used-vehicle sales in November finished near 2.6 million units, down just a few hundred units from November 2022. Used retail sales are estimated to have finished November near 1.4 million, up just slightly from last year’s volume. Used Car Dealers
Estimates based on registration data indicate that the used-vehicle sales pace — both total and retail — in November was flat compared to the market’s pace of one year ago. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is estimated to have finished at 34.5 million, even with last November’s pace but down from October’s revised 36.6 million level.
“The used-vehicle market for this year is expected to finish just below last year’s performance,” said Chris Frey, senior manager of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “The strong headwinds that blew throughout 2023 – mainly rising interest rates and elevated consumer uncertainty – are being mitigated by lower used-vehicle prices and higher inventory.”
Retail used-vehicle sales — the volume of vehicles sold via a dealership, thus removing private party sales — are estimated to be 1.4 million in November, down 12.8% from the 1.6 million recorded in October, with the same number of selling days. The used retail sales pace fell to 18.3 million in November from October’s revised 19.4 million level.
The retail used-vehicle sales estimates based on registration data generally align with the used sales estimates based on observed changes in advertised units tracked by vAuto, a Cox Automotive company specializing in inventory management. This month, the vAuto estimates suggest that used retail vehicles sales volume in November was down 7% compared to October, with year-over-year volumes down 2%. Revised registration data for November will be available in January.
“Our vAuto data has shown used-vehicle prices below last year’s levels the entire year,” noted Frey. “So clearly, improved prices and inventory has been a key factor. Inflation may still exist in other parts of the U.S. economy, but it is not a concern in the used-vehicle market.”
Overall, Cox Automotive estimates the used-vehicle market, from all retail and private transactions, will likely beat its forecast and finish 2023 near 35.9 million, just below last year’s 36.3 million.
Used Cars Right Hand Drive Suv The Cox Automotive estimated total and retail used-vehicle SAAR and volume are updated monthly and are subject to change due to market volatility.